It’s been 20 years since Ohioans elected a Democrat for governor. Ohio is now a solidly red state, but polls have shown the race for governor between Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy is close. One expert suggested some of the dynamics of the political climate in 2006 are present now, but there are some big differences too.
Ohio Wesleyan Politics and Government Professor Emerita Joan McLean said she remembers when Democrat Ted Strickland beat Republican Ken Blackwell by 24 points in 2006. McLean, who’d been a campaign aide for Vice Presidential candidate Geraldine Ferraro in 1984, was teaching at the university years before Strickland won and saw the politics that prefaced it.
Factors at play in 2006
Blackwell, who was secretary of state, won a bruising Republican primary against then-Attorney General Jim Petro, who had received endorsements from many state legislators, co-endorsements from prominent advocacy groups and backing from law enforcement and conservative groups. But Blackwell had the support from a coalition of evangelical Christian pastors, and that helped him win the primary.
McLean said there were scandals, economic uncertainty and unpopular national politics leading up to the 2006 gubernatorial election, with one of the biggest in 2005. The scandal involving the theft of $13 million from $50 million in Bureau of Workers Compensation investments managed by Republican donor and rare coin dealer Tom Noe had reached all the way to Republican then-Gov. Bob Taft.
"Gov. Taft was accused of having forgot or not even paid attention to the filing government laws for campaigns where you have to report gifts above $75 unless you've reimbursed them. He had gifts, some say, totaling about $6,000, and those gifts were for dinners and outings and golfing and taking tickets for games and things of that,” McLean said in an interview. “Now, it might sound petty, but that was the ethical requirement. And when a governor breaks an ethical requirement, it's a big deal. And it was a big deal then," McLean said.
Taft entered a no contest plea to four charges of failing to report 52 gifts, including golf trips and dinners from Noe and others. He was fined $100 and ordered him to make a written apology to the citizens of Ohio, and became the first sitting governor of Ohio to be convicted of criminal charges.
But the so-called “Coingate” scandal was only part of the story. Blackwell had his own concerns, said McLean.
"He got accused of partisanship,” said McLean. “Here you are, the secretary of state in charge of running fair elections, and you become the co-chair of the presidential candidate, at that time George Bush's, campaign. Not exactly nonpartisan.”
She added that Blackwell was invested in Diebold, the manufacturer of voting machines used in Ohio: "Not a good look for secretary of state.“
And McLean said Blackwell had also weighed in on a ballot issue allowing slot machines in Ohio. Previous secretaries of state had stayed out of ballot issue campaigns, but that's changed. Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose, currently running for auditor, spoke out against ballot issues guaranteeing reproductive rights and changing the redistricting process, and supports the current ballot issue for a constitutional amendment to require in person voters show photo ID, which is already in state law.
"What the Republicans were losing [in 2006] was the image of being the right people at the right time to be still governing," McLean said.
Strickland, then a Congressman from southeast Ohio, had avoided a tough primary. He beat then-Rep. Bryan Flannery, handily winning the nomination with over 70% of the vote.
"He was appealing in interesting ways to rural voters, to city voters, to moderate voters," McClain said. "The picture we just painted of chaos; he was calm. The picture we just painted of ethics problems; he had none. And I think people responded to his reputation, to his humbleness, to his strong faith. He was a minister, to his representation in Congress, what he did there, it was always consistent."
McLean said voters saw Strickland as a change agent at a time when they perceived change to be needed.
Similarities between 2006 and 2026
Fast forwarding to 2026, McLean said there are scandals that could play into the minds of voters, who also might not feel good about their economic situation. She said they might be angry about the war in Iran and situations at the national level. But Ohio has been strongly Republican for decades, with GOP candidates winning 82% of statewide races since 1994. So while a "blue wave" might happen in other states, that may not be the case for Ohio.
McLean said redistricting, money and the Trump factor may have helped Republican candidates across the country in the primaries, but that might be a negative for them in November, depending on how voters view Trump at that time.
McLean said there's less cohesiveness in political parties to turn out voters. And she said politics is an abstract concept to many young voters who think their vote doesn't really count. And she said it will be harder than ever for candidates to break through the barriers that keep people from voting.
"That's a lot of complicated messages for candidates to deliver," McLean said.
And McLean said there's something else that could be a factor.
“I think the voters were angry in 2006, that they weren’t being heard and represented," McLean said. "And I think the same now, but I fear that the anger is turning into fatigue."
