State income tax collections have been down for the last two months, leading some to wonder whether Ohio will end the fiscal year with a surplus – or in the red.
Personal income tax collections were off by nearly six percent in December, and more than 7 percent below estimates last month. Budget director Kimberly Murnieks says she thinks the 2017 federal tax law change could be the reason.
“That cap [on] the amount of state and local taxes that can be deducted on your federal taxes – that really eliminated the incentives to pay your entire liability at that time.”
While the fiscal-year-to-date personal income tax take is more than 2 percent below forecasts, Murnieks says the sales tax is performing well and Medicaid caseloads are down. So she still expects the state will have a surplus at the close of the fiscal year in June.